Can Trump’s New Economic Pressure Campaign Break the Deadlock?

Nearly six months after President Donald Trump promised a swift victory over Iran, the conflict appears to have reached a stalemate. Neither a decisive military victory nor a negotiated settlement seems close. In response, the United States is preparing to step up its economic pressure on Iran and potentially on other countries that continue to do business with Tehran.

Trump has described the proposed strategy as an “economic D-Day.” Although the precise measures have not yet been fully explained, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has indicated that Washington could crack down on countries, companies, and financial institutions that help Iran transfer money or sell oil. The message appears straightforward: countries that continue supporting Iran economically could face serious consequences themselves.

Economic sanctions are not new for Iran. The country has lived under significant US restrictions for decades, particularly since Washington withdrew from the 2015 nuclear agreement. During the current conflict, the US has already launched a broader economic campaign combining financial sanctions with efforts to restrict Iranian trade.

The latest strategy could widen the net by targeting third countries and institutions that provide Iran with access to international markets or the US dollar. In other words, Washington may try to cut off not only Iran's own financial resources but also the external networks that help keep its economy functioning.

However, Iran has repeatedly demonstrated an ability to adapt. According to sanctions experts, Iranian businesses and officials have used alternative shipping networks, unofficial intermediaries, and new commercial entities to get around existing restrictions. As soon as one route is blocked, another may spring up, forcing governments responsible for enforcing sanctions to catch up.

The effectiveness of the new campaign may therefore depend less on Iran itself and more on other countries. Nations such as China, Turkey, or Iraq could face pressure to scale back their economic ties with Iran. Yet their willingness to cooperate cannot be taken for granted, particularly if doing so would damage their own economic interests.

This creates a difficult challenge for Washington. Sanctions can impose serious costs, but they may be less effective when targeted countries are willing to absorb those costs or find alternative trading partners. If major economies refuse to comply, Iran could continue to rely on international networks to reduce the impact of US restrictions.

Ultimately, the new economic campaign represents another attempt to break through a military and diplomatic deadlock. Whether it succeeds will depend on how strongly the United States enforces the measures and whether other countries choose to cooperate. Without a broader and clearly defined strategy, however, economic pressure alone may struggle to bring about the long-term outcome Washington is seeking.

Economic Phrasal Verbs

Phrasal Verb	Definition	Example
step up	Increase the amount, intensity, or effort involved in something	The government stepped up economic pressure on the country.
crack down on	Take strong action to stop or control something	Authorities cracked down on companies that violated sanctions.
widen the net	Expand the range of people, companies, or activities being targeted	The new policy could widen the net to include foreign banks.
cut off	Stop the supply of money, resources, or access	The sanctions aimed to cut Iran off from international financial markets.
get around	Find a way to avoid a rule, restriction, or problem	Some companies tried to get around the restrictions through third parties.
spring up	Appear or develop quickly	New trading networks may spring up when older ones are blocked.
catch up	Reach the same level or respond to developments that happened earlier	Regulators often struggle to catch up with rapidly changing financial networks.
scale back	Reduce the size, amount, or intensity of something	Several companies scaled back their investments in the region.
rely on	Depend on someone or something	Iran has relied on alternative trade networks to reduce the effects of sanctions.
bring about	Cause something to happen	Economic reforms may bring about significant changes.

Glossary

stalemate

Definition: A situation in which neither side can make progress or achieve victory.

Example: The conflict reached a stalemate after months of fighting.

sanctions

Definition: Economic or political measures used to pressure a country, organization, or individual.

Example: The government introduced new sanctions against Iranian financial institutions.

economic pressure

Definition: The use of financial or trade measures to influence another country's behavior.

Example: The United States hopes economic pressure will encourage Iran to negotiate.

secondary sanctions

Definition: Sanctions imposed on third parties that do business with an already sanctioned country or organization.

Example: The company faced secondary sanctions for continuing to trade with Iran.

financial institution

Definition: An organization that provides financial services, such as a bank or investment company.

Example: Several financial institutions were investigated for violating sanctions.

enforcement

Definition: The process of making sure that laws, rules, or regulations are obeyed.

Example: Effective enforcement is essential if sanctions are going to work.

circumvent

Definition: To find a way around a law, rule, or restriction.

Example: The company attempted to circumvent the restrictions by using intermediaries.

commercial entity

Definition: A business or organization involved in economic activity.

Example: New commercial entities were created to continue international trade.

compliance

Definition: The act of obeying a law, regulation, or rule.

Example: Banks were required to demonstrate compliance with the sanctions.

deadlock

Definition: A situation in which opposing sides cannot reach an agreement or make further progress.

Example: The negotiations remained in deadlock despite international mediation.

Discussion Questions

1. If you were responsible for designing economic sanctions, what industries or financial activities would you target first? Why?

2. If a country had been under sanctions for decades, how might its businesses and government adapt to survive?

3. If the United States imposed sanctions on countries that continued trading with Iran, how might those countries respond?

4. If major economies refused to comply with US sanctions, what alternatives might the United States have?

5. If sanctions caused significant economic suffering among ordinary citizens but failed to change a government's policies, should they continue? Why or why not?

6. If you were the leader of a country economically dependent on Iranian energy, how would you respond to pressure to scale back trade?

7. If alternative financial systems became more widely used, how might this affect the importance of the US dollar in international trade?

8. If economic pressure successfully brought Iran back to negotiations, what conditions would be necessary for a lasting agreement?

Critical Thinking Questions

1. If sanctions had completely isolated Iran from the global economy, would they necessarily have forced the government to change its policies? Why or why not?

2. If you were advising a government that had to choose between protecting its economic interests and complying with another country's sanctions, what factors would you consider?

3. If the United States continued to widen the net of its sanctions, could it eventually damage its relationships with allies and trading partners? How?

4. If countries increasingly developed alternative payment systems to avoid US sanctions, what long-term consequences could this have for the global financial system?

5. If Iran had been unable to get around earlier sanctions, how might the current conflict have developed differently?

6. If sanctions are intended to avoid military action but cause widespread economic hardship, should they be considered a more humane alternative to war?

7. If China, Turkey, and other major trading partners refused to scale back economic relations with Iran, how effective could the US strategy realistically be?

8. If economic pressure fails to bring about either political change or a negotiated settlement, what might happen next? Would policymakers be likely to step up pressure further, change strategy, or pursue diplomacy?

9. If you had to design an international sanctions system, how would you prevent governments from avoiding restrictions while minimizing harm to ordinary civilians?

10. If the conflict eventually ended but economic sanctions remained in place, what conditions should be met before those restrictions were scaled back or removed?